Chapter 4 - Swapluck

[devon]

Good swap obviously. Jason got sent to Siberia and most of my closest allies are still with me.

I'm in an interesting spot because I feel like I have inside information: the legacy advantage can be used at final 12 or final 7, so I think we're merging at 12 (it would be kind of weird if one of the eligible rounds was a tribal immunity round). 

This is particularly useful information in my hands, of all people, because this is the classic spot in Survivor where you are actually incentivized to throw challenges (on paper), and I'm the kind of player that won't hesitate to do that if it will increase my overall chances of winning the game.

Right now, I'm leaning towards trying to win at least the first challenge to see if I can get Jason out of my life, but the main downside of this is that I risk Kristine's life. And I would really hate to lose her at this point. Jason is enough of a trainwreck as a player and Kristine seems committed enough to his demise that I do think he has about a 40-50% chance of going home if Dreyfus goes to tribal, so I might roll the dice.

This is the kind of thing I could bring up with Elyse, but I actually think I'll keep it to myself, since unilaterally (and secretly) throwing makes me look weaker in challenges (something that NEEDS to happen soon) and doesn't give others ammunition/motivation to take me out.

A big part of my decision will come down to the details I get about the Dreyfus dynamics from Spencer and Sam.

[devon]

Been a bit busy today, but I've been thinking a lot about whether to throw or not. Ultimately, I think I'm going to try to win this challenge because the more I think about it, Kristine has a low chance of being the boot on NuDreyfus. Jason will probably try to keep working with Kristine and throw Chris under the bus. And if the original Dreyfus clock Jason and Kristine as a pair, it's more likely that they'll choose to vote out Jason over Kristine. Alternatively, Kristine could very well try to throw Jason under the bus.

If Jason does get voted out next, however, then I will 100% throw this next challenge.

[devon]

Welp, nevermind, I'm 2/2 in being dead wrong about major events this round. Really fun twist idea, I think it shakes up the metagame of swaps (under ordinary circumstances, a lot of people on both tribes would be decently incentivized to just throw immunity challenges - I considered it heavily).

I could easily get Malcolm Freberg'd out of the game at this tribal. But the more I think about this, I think this will break down into a battle of the majorities on each tribe, with the (tribal) minorities having a lot of leverage in target selection. I clocked this early and immediately reached out to Sam after the challenge; we had a pretty good call where she spilled about the original Dreyfus dynamics and said that she'd be down to vote Iqra. Spencer seems on board too, as are the 5 original Slyvain.

Speaking of the challenge, I continued to play 4D chess with these people by dropping out at the final 5 - I knew that this challenge was designed for us to reveal our alliance structures, so I dipped at F5 to keep Jessie feeling like she's in a decent spot. This also ensured that I didn't have to show my cards as to who I prefer between Elyse, Grace, and Alex.

I hope one of the original Dreyfus on NuDreyfus go home tomorrow. But it should be noted that Alex or Grace going wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for my long-term prospects. I feel like I'm 4th in the me-Alex-Grace-Elyse quartet, and it's kind of limiting my agency. Right now there's also this awkward dynamic between the four of us where we're all keeping fairly-significant secrets from each other. One of them dying an untimely death would bring me and the other two closer together and seal some of that awkwardness. Also, more straightforwardly, I just won't fully trust either of them ever again after they failed to tell me about Jason's alliance.

Lastly, this just occurred to me now, but if this breaks down into both tribes having their majority alliance pick the range of targets and the respective minority alliances picking the specific target (i.e., us basically telling Sam/Spencer that we're only voting for an OG Dreyfus on the other side, but Sam/Spencer having some leverage in picking the target within that group), we could get a 7-7 tie between Iqra and Jessie - since Jessie is the one OG Slyvain that Jason-Kristine-Chris can probably agree on. If that's how it plays out, I will not be going to rocks for Jessie - especially since the prospect of weaponizing her against Jason seems less likely given the tensions between her and Elyse (from some things said during the challenge) + Kristine.