Episode 5 - Strike Three

[devon]

.

Thinking about how this game will play out at merge if I only confide in Sam and Jessie, I think that I'd get picked off by the OG Dreyfus group eventually. So I'll probably confide in Elyse, and if she chooses Alex over me, so be it. My merge prospects are too bleak without her - especially since she'd be a number for me against Jason - and I've already invested so much into that relationship.

I'm not gonna throw this upcoming challenge - anyone but Kristine or Jason going on that other tribe is fine with me, and it'll probably make Jason burn his idol.

I have no idea how Grace is going to factor into my game. I don't feel comfortable talking to her about Alex, and I don't feel comfortable talking to her about Jason. However, at some point I may need her as a buffer against an OG Dreyfus majority. As of now, I have no idea what to do with Grace.

[devon]

Made it to Final 12 - the magic round for me!

Based on my Legacy Advantage being valid for that round, I'm assuming we're either going to merge next...or have another joint tribal ☠️☠️☠️

If we have another joint tribal, I have absolutely no idea what I am going to do. I guess it depends on who gets voted out of Dreyfus but, like, in a way it doesn't matter. That would be super-confusing and messy.

If we merge, I'm gonna hit the ground running and weaponize the remaining OG Dreyfus against Jason and, now, Alex. I'll frame it to them as though if I get voted out, all the other Slyvains would be a big happy family and would have no issue Pagoning Dreyfus - but that I'm the ONE willing to help them make sure that doesn't happen.

It shouldn't be too hard to get Jessie on my side for this. She's blatantly on the outs of the Slyvain hierarchy. That will be either 7 or 6 right there, depending on the Dreyfus tribal council today. The rest of the Slyvains are a bit more complicated:
- Kristine: Has issues with Jason, but has now had more time to bond with him. Hopefully she's still on board to take a shot at him.
- Chris: Was an outsider like Jessie, and I can use the information of the alliances he was excluded from to help pull him in. But he was probably at least social with Jason pre-swap and has now had a lot of time to bond with Jason. He also seems Slyvain-strong in general.
- Elyse: I feel strongly that she's genuine about wanting Jason out, but she definitely knows more than she lets on to me. She clearly has tight bonds with Grace and/or Alex, and this will make it complicated to try and turn her against them. Even having her help me blindside Jason will be tough since Jason has an idol, Grace/Alex are major threats to leak information to Jason, and Elyse is a decent threat to leak information to Grace/Alex.
- Grace: Is obviously tighter with Jason than she lets on, but she also makes an effort with me. I don't want to pure flip to Dreyfus at the merge because then they'll just reverse-Pagong me at F6 or whatever, so I need some Slyvain numbers post-Jason as a buffer against that. This is leading me to want to include Grace in my plans, even though I could easily get the Jason vote through without her help.
- Alex: dead to me, needs to leave as soon as possible
- Jason: should have been 16th or 15th, is living on borrowed time.