Episode 6 - The True Game Begins
Nov 25, 2019 9:24:03 GMT -5
Benji, michaelbrady, and 1 more like this
Post by devon on Nov 25, 2019 9:24:03 GMT -5
Super-weird to not be merging in this round. With my tribes winning so much I feel like my entire game has been in this limbo, where I'm just waiting for it to start again. Hey, I'll take it over being an OG Dreyfus - but I'm used to being more pedal-to-the-metal.
I've gone back and forth in my head on whether it's better to win or lose this challenge, but I think it's basically a push.
I'm just gonna try in this challenge so that I don't draw negative attention to myself, but I won't really care about the outcome.
In general, I need to start thinking with the endgame in mind, then reason backwards to figure out what I need to do now. Some related-but-miscellaneous thoughts thus far:
Finally, I'll talk about my reasoning more in a video confessional if the situation actually comes up, but if we do lose, I'll likely play my Legacy Advantage. Blindsiding Grace and especially Elyse would be annoying; but having the L.A. would allow me to bring the plan directly to them, then play the L.A. at Tribal Council to see if they did what they said they'd do. If I didn't have the L.A., I'd probably just have to blindside them so that there would be no chance of a counter-plan against me getting formed.
Again, I'll get into it in more depth if the situation comes up, but philosophically I'm a lot more aggressive than most people about using advantages early. People tend to overestimate the opportunity cost of using an idol/advantage earlier rather than later. Okay, essay over for now lol.
I've gone back and forth in my head on whether it's better to win or lose this challenge, but I think it's basically a push.
- Pros to losing: Jason doesn't get to pick off an OG Dreyfus that I could weaponize against him at merge; I get to blast Alex off the face of the Earth.
- Pros to winning: I don't have to worry about OG Dreyfus reverse-Pagoning me as much (i.e., we get to a final 6 of the 4 OG Dreyfus + me and Jessie, then they pick us off); it'll be a bit easier to blindside Jason with an idol at the merge since there wouldn't be an explicit line drawn between us (whereas if we lost and I voted out Alex, we'd go into merge with Jason knowing that I'm immediately gunning for him).
I'm just gonna try in this challenge so that I don't draw negative attention to myself, but I won't really care about the outcome.
In general, I need to start thinking with the endgame in mind, then reason backwards to figure out what I need to do now. Some related-but-miscellaneous thoughts thus far:
- Grace is probably one of the top win contenders so far, and she's going to be a constant, disruptive force in my game with her ability to build strong relationships. No matter which way I look at it, I'll need to cut her early - probably after Jason.
- Elyse is similar, but isn't as social and is more aloof in general, so it's less problematic to keep her around for a while. Not the worst person to go to the end with actually, but my gut tells me I can't fully trust her, so I'll probably give her something like 7th place.
- The final 4 I'm gonna try to make happen is me-Jessie-Sam-(random OG Dreyfus). This is easier to sell to Sam than 3 OG Slyvains and her, or something like a F5 of 3 Slyvains and 2 Dreyfuses. I need people looking out for me at least up until F5 or F4, and a long-term + fair proposal like this is my best chance of having Sam protect me in those middle merge rounds.
Finally, I'll talk about my reasoning more in a video confessional if the situation actually comes up, but if we do lose, I'll likely play my Legacy Advantage. Blindsiding Grace and especially Elyse would be annoying; but having the L.A. would allow me to bring the plan directly to them, then play the L.A. at Tribal Council to see if they did what they said they'd do. If I didn't have the L.A., I'd probably just have to blindside them so that there would be no chance of a counter-plan against me getting formed.
Again, I'll get into it in more depth if the situation comes up, but philosophically I'm a lot more aggressive than most people about using advantages early. People tend to overestimate the opportunity cost of using an idol/advantage earlier rather than later. Okay, essay over for now lol.